In a surprising development, Democrat Kamala Harris has taken the lead over Donald Trump in Iowa, with 47% of likely voters supporting her compared to Trump’s 44%, according to the latest Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll. This is a notable shift in a state that has leaned heavily Republican in recent elections, giving Trump decisive wins in 2016 and 2020.
The poll shows that women, particularly older and independent voters, are driving this shift toward Harris, while Trump retains support from his core base: men, evangelicals, rural residents, and voters without a college degre
This unexpected lead for Harris comes just days before the election, which remains tight in battleground states. Trump previously led in Iowa by 4 points in September and had an 18-point lead over Joe Biden in June, when he was assumed to be the Democratic nominee. "It’s hard for anybody to say they saw this coming," remarked J. Ann Selzer, the pollster who conducted the survey, as Harris “clearly leaped into a leading position.”
Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who recently dropped his independent bid to endorse Trump but remains on the ballot, garners 3% support. In comparison, Libertarian candidate Chase Oliver draws less than 1%, while 3% of respondents remain undecided. The poll of 808 likely Iowa voters was conducted between October 28-31, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points.
Iowa Independents, Particularly Women, Now Favor Harris
Harris’s lead is attributed to a surge among independent voters, especially women. Among independents, she now leads 46% to 39%, a reversal from previous polls where independents backed Trump. Harris holds a 28-point lead among independent women, whereas independent men still favor Trump but by a smaller margin.
The gender and age dynamics are pronounced, with older women favoring Harris by over a 2-to-1 margin (63% to 28%), while older men are more evenly split. Linda Marshall, a 79-year-old Democrat, stated that she supports Harris because of her stance on reproductive rights and commitment to democracy.
Meanwhile, enthusiasm remains strong among Trump’s base, with 76% of his supporters expressing strong enthusiasm for their choice, compared to 71% of Harris’s supporters. However, the number of undecided voters has dropped, with 91% now firm in their choice, up from 80% in September.
Age and Education Divide Voters; Issues Like Democracy and Economy Dominate
Harris’s support is particularly strong among college-educated voters, leading Trump 61% to 31% among this group, while Trump leads among those without a college degree (51% to 39%). She also has substantial support in urban and suburban areas, while Trump leads in rural regions.
Among the key issues for voters, Harris supporters prioritize “the future of democracy,” with 51% citing it as their top concern, followed by abortion at 22%. Trump’s backers emphasize the economy and inflation (49%) and immigration (25%).
Some Republicans have shifted their support away from Trump in 2024. Ralph Newbanks, a lifelong Republican, shared that the January 6 Capitol riots swayed him against Trump, calling compromise essential to democracy. The poll indicates that 16% of those not supporting Trump had previously backed him, while 67% now consider themselves “never Trumpers.”
The poll suggests that Harris could benefit from high turnout among senior voters, who tend to be more consistent in voting. About 93% of likely senior voters plan to vote, compared to 62% of voters under 35. As Selzer put it, “If you want a horse to ride on, you want seniors, because they vote.”
As Election Day approaches, the Harris campaign is seeing unexpected momentum in a state once considered a Republican stronghold, challenging conventional expectations for Iowa’s role in the national election.
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