Women leading in early voting boosts optimism for Harris campaign
WASHINGTON — Women have turned out in early voting nearly 10 percentage points higher than men, a trend that the Kamala Harris campaign and Democrats view as encouraging. However, Donald Trump’s campaign downplays the gap, claiming it’s due to Democratic male voters staying home so far.
With Election Day just four days away, 53% of early voters nationwide as of Friday were women, and 44% were men, per data from TargetSmart, a firm aligned with Democrats that tracks early voting. This margin mirrors 2020, when Joe Biden won with a similar 53%-44% gender split at this stage of early voting. Democrats feel optimistic as women, who polls indicate prefer Harris over Trump by a wide margin, hold a 9-point edge even though more Republican voters have cast preliminary ballots this year.
"The Democratic women, especially, appear to be just more fired up. Even though the Republicans' vote share is increasing, you're still seeing those gender gaps hold," noted Tom Bonier, CEO of TargetSmart.
Over 67 million Americans had cast early ballots as of Friday afternoon, according to the University of Florida’s Election Project. TargetSmart’s gender breakdown, based on the initial 55 million early votes, mirrors trends from 2020, when more than 100 million Americans voted early.
While early voting data doesn’t reveal who each voter chose, Harris is notably favored by women while Trump leads with men, polling has shown. In a USA TODAY/Suffolk University poll conducted Oct. 14-18, Harris led nationally 53%-36% among women, while Trump led 53%-37% among men.
Early voting gender gaps in key battleground states, according to TargetSmart, include:
Pennsylvania: 14-point edge for women
Michigan: 10-point edge for women
Wisconsin: 8-point edge for women
North Carolina: 11-point edge for women
Georgia: 12-point edge for women
Nevada: Gender parity (women led by 2 points in 2020)
Arizona: 5-point edge for women
The gap is likely to narrow on Election Day, when more men typically vote. In 2020, women made up about 52% of the final vote. Since the Supreme Court’s 2022 decision overturning Roe v. Wade, Democrats have seen increased support from women, with Harris prioritizing abortion rights in her campaign and criticizing Trump’s role in reversing Roe.
On Thursday, Harris responded to Trump’s pledge to "protect women whether they like it or not," calling it "offensive to everybody." A senior Harris campaign official remarked, "The women of America are definitely voting, and we know that the vice president is performing better with women than Trump."
Some Republicans have voiced concerns over the early-voting gender disparity. Conservative activist Charlie Kirk warned that “if men stay at home, Kamala is president.” Yet the Trump campaign isn’t worried, attributing the gender gap to lower turnout among Democratic men. In Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Nevada, Democratic male turnout remains notably low, ranging from 37% to 43%.
"For all their boasting about more women in the electorate, it seems Democratic men aren't showing up — at least not yet," a Trump campaign official remarked.
Democrats point out that while the early-voting gender gap from 2020 has persisted, Republican voters, who are mostly male, have closed some of the overall gap. In states with party registration, Democrats hold 47% of the early vote to Republicans’ 44%, a narrower margin than 2020’s 49%-41% Democratic edge.
Harris supporters believe the GOP gains reflect Republicans voting early this year after Trump’s recent endorsement of early and mail voting. Conversely, Democrats, many of whom were “COVID-conscious” in 2020, have shifted back to their usual voting habits.
"What we've seen since the Dobbs decision, where women have been politically engaged at a higher rate, continues in the early vote," said Bonier. "Seeing these large gender gaps hold is a source of optimism for the (Harris) campaign."
Meanwhile, the Harris campaign highlighted momentum among previously undecided voters who recently chose a candidate, with internal data suggesting Harris is winning this group by "double digits." A campaign official cited a recent Trump rally in New York, where racist comments from some speakers reportedly helped "crystallize the choice" for many voters.
Karoline Leavitt, Trump’s national press secretary, dismissed this narrative, accusing the Harris campaign of attempting to shift focus from their struggles. "What in the past week would motivate anyone to vote for Kamala Harris?" she asked, referencing President Joe Biden’s recent remark about Trump supporters. "Kamala Harris has endured a series of bad news cycles because she's a weak candidate, and no one is inspired to vote for her."
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