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Among voters without college degrees, Kamala Harris struggled more than Joe Biden did four years ago—a troubling sign for Democrats as they continue losing their traditional working-class support. The GOP’s recent successes, buoyed by gains among white women unmoved by Trump’s role in overturning Roe v. Wade, and a shift among some Latino and Black men in swing states, highlight a growing divide between college-educated and non-college-educated voters.
This divide, often called the "diploma divide," has been an enduring challenge for Democrats and seems to have worsened. CNN exit polls (though not definitive) indicated that Harris performed better than Biden among white voters with college degrees. At the same time, NBC News’ exit polling showed Republicans gained nine points with voters who hadn’t attended college, with other sources like the Associated Press and The Washington Post showing similar trends.
"The diploma divide continued and even expanded from past elections," said Michigan State political scientist Matt Grossmann, who has studied this trend. As college has become more economically necessary, access remains limited. The rising costs of college, ballooning student debt, and controversies around student loan forgiveness have deepened tensions and shaped voter choices.
For years, Democrats accepted that they would struggle to win non-college-educated voters, according to Joan Williams, a law professor at UC San Francisco and author of Outclassed: How the Left Lost the Working Class and How to Win Them Back. She notes, "Democrats assumed they’d make up the difference by winning big among voters of color. But that strategy isn’t working."
Two-thirds of white men without college degrees and 60% of white women without degrees backed Trump, according to Washington Post exit data.
The Changing Political Leanings of College-Educated Voters
Historically, college-educated Americans didn’t always lean Democratic. Republicans have long accused colleges of “liberal indoctrination,” but for much of the 20th century, college graduates often leaned toward the GOP. In the 1980s, under President Ronald Reagan, more white voters without college degrees moved away from the Democratic Party, in part due to a perception that Democrats increasingly represented "elites."
By 2008, when Barack Obama defeated John McCain, education level became a significant predictor of Democratic support. In 2016, Trump successfully tapped into this populist discontent, establishing the GOP as the party for those who felt alienated by "political correctness" and overlooked by policy wonks. This shift persisted into 2020 and seemed even stronger this year.
Simply put, Democrats have lost their image as a party of the working class, says Grossmann.
Democrats Recalibrate Their Messaging on Education
Since 2016, the left’s struggle to win over non-college-educated voters has influenced their messaging on education. Early in his presidency, Obama set a goal to make the U.S. the global leader in college graduates, but recent Democratic leaders have softened the “college for all” rhetoric. Instead, they have emphasized other educational paths, like vocational programs and apprenticeships.
Just before Election Day, Kamala Harris pledged to remove degree requirements for some federal jobs. But days later, many non-college voters, who might benefit from such policies, voted against her.
Without the visibility and influence of the Oval Office, Democrats have significant work ahead if they hope to win back these voters, according to Williams. “Non-college voters feel like they’ve been left behind,” she said. “They’re not invested in preserving a system that seems to have eroded the American Dream.”
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