Economic Disruption and Political Leverage: What Trump’s Return Could Mean for China
China is preparing for potential turbulence as Donald Trump’s historic comeback raises uncertainty in the intensifying U.S.-China rivalry. Trump’s return to the White House could mean heavy tariffs—up to 60%—on Chinese goods, threatening economic stability in the world’s second-largest economy and shaking global supply chains. Additionally, more stringent technology controls and increased anti-China rhetoric may further strain relations between the superpowers.
However, Trump’s protectionist policies and transactional foreign approach might also weaken U.S. alliances and global leadership, presenting Beijing with an opportunity to fill the void and promote an alternative global order. “Trump’s return will certainly bring both opportunities and risks for China,” noted Shen Dingli, a foreign policy analyst based in Shanghai. “Ultimately, the impact will depend on how both sides engage.”
While officially neutral, with Foreign Ministry spokespersons respecting the U.S. electoral choice, China is likely preparing for possible challenges. Chinese President Xi Jinping congratulated Trump, expressing hope for cooperative U.S.-China relations. However, behind the diplomatic facade, Beijing is bracing for uncertainties as Trump’s volatile tendencies could lead to unpredictable outcomes.
The Tariff Threat
During his first term, Trump launched a trade war with China, blacklisting tech giant Huawei and blaming Beijing for the COVID-19 pandemic, sinking bilateral relations to a new low. Now, he has proposed a sweeping 60% tariff on Chinese imports, which could have significant consequences for China’s economy, already weakened by a property crisis, low consumer demand, falling prices, and rising local government debt. According to Macquarie, this high tariff could slash China’s growth rate by two percentage points, a serious blow to an economy projected to grow 5% this year.
The tariff escalation could disrupt not only China and the U.S., but also global supply chains, affecting all economies reliant on international trade. “Trade war 2.0 could end China’s current growth model, where exports and manufacturing are primary drivers,” warned Larry Hu, Macquarie’s chief China economist.
Balancing Risks with Opportunities
Despite the risks, Trump’s “America First” agenda could provide strategic openings for China. Beijing may seek to strengthen ties with Europe, where Trump’s tariff policies may face opposition, thus countering U.S. attempts to decouple from China in technology and supply chains.
Trump’s criticism of NATO and alliances also raises the possibility of a weakened Western coalition, potentially alleviating some of the pressure China faces in the Asia-Pacific. For Xi Jinping, a U.S. pivot inward under Trump could allow China to bolster its leadership in the Global South and advocate for a world order less dominated by the West.
Taiwan and Geopolitical Maneuvering
Beijing could also explore Trump’s deal-making tendencies on Taiwan. During his previous term, the U.S. supported Taiwan with arms sales and diplomatic visits, intensifying tensions. Recently, Trump criticized Taiwan for “stealing” the U.S. chip industry, hinting at a more transactional stance. Analysts suggest that China might leverage this shift to seek greater concessions from Washington on Taiwan, potentially reducing American support.
Trump’s ties to Russian President Vladimir Putin add another layer of complexity. Trump has suggested a potential truce in Ukraine, which could alleviate tensions in Europe but might drive a wedge between Russia and China. “If U.S.-Russia relations ease, China and Russia could grow more distant,” said Liu Dongshu of the City University of Hong Kong. “Trump appears to view China, not Russia, as the main adversary.”
Putin congratulated Trump, signaling a willingness to re-engage with the U.S. “Trump’s comments on ending the Ukraine conflict deserve attention,” Putin said, hinting at the geopolitical shifts a Trump administration could bring.
With Trump’s second term on the horizon, China faces both risks and potential rewards in its dynamic relationship with the United States, with ramifications for global stability.
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