Abortion, Gender, and the 'Bro Vote': Six Factors that Could Decide if Harris or Trump Wins
WASHINGTON − After months of analyzing numerous polls, fluctuating betting markets, and a historic gender divide, the 2024 election is finally here. Soon, we’ll know if Democrat Kamala Harris or Republican Donald Trump will be the next U.S. president.
With more than 80 million early votes cast and a similar number expected at the polls on Tuesday, the election is incredibly close and could hinge on seven critical battleground states: Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Georgia, Nevada, and Arizona.
Due to late-counted mail ballots in key states like Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, the winner may not be clear on election night.
This has been an unprecedented campaign season, marked by Trump’s status as a twice-impeached, four-time-indicted former president, and Harris’s late start after President Joe Biden withdrew in July. The race also witnessed two assassination attempts aimed at Trump.
Here are six key factors to watch that could determine whether Harris or Trump wins:
How Large Will the Gender Gap Be?
The 2024 election has come to be seen as a "boys versus girls" race, with Harris performing significantly better among women and Trump stronger with men. Harris, who seeks to be the first female U.S. president, led nationally with women voters 53%-36% in a USA TODAY/Suffolk University poll from mid-October, while Trump led male voters 53%-37%.
Because women typically vote at higher rates than men, this gender gap could give Harris an advantage. Harris’s campaign has highlighted the abortion debate post-Roe v. Wade to attract women voters in hopes of a decisive turnout advantage. Early voting data shows women outpacing men by about 9 points, a margin similar to 2020 when Biden defeated Trump.
Will Trump’s ‘Bro Vote’ Materialize?
To counter Harris’s lead among women, Trump has targeted young men without college degrees—a demographic he has courted through appearances at UFC events, college football games, and interviews with popular podcasters like Joe Rogan, Adin Ross, and Logan Paul. He even launched a Trump-branded sneaker.
These efforts are aimed at male voters under 50 who are undecided, making up about 11% of the electorate in battleground states. Many of these voters are considered low-information and inconsistent in voting. Trump needs them to turn out in strong numbers.
A Silver Surge for Harris?
Since 2000, Democrats have struggled to secure seniors as a voting bloc in presidential elections, but Harris might buck that trend, especially with older women.
Polls indicate a possible "silver surge" for Harris, with the October USA TODAY/Suffolk poll showing her leading voters 65 and older 46%-44% nationally, and an AARP survey from September finding her ahead 54%-42% among senior women. Concerns like rising costs, Social Security, Medicare, and reproductive rights have driven support for Harris among older women.
The latest Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll shows Harris leading Trump in traditionally red Iowa, thanks to a significant lead among senior women, which could help her in Midwestern battlegrounds.
Will Trump Win Over More Black and Latino Voters?
Trump has made gains with some Black and Latino voters, particularly younger men, challenging traditional Democratic strongholds. If Trump can increase his share of the Black vote even slightly in cities like Philadelphia, Detroit, and Milwaukee, Harris would need to compensate by expanding her support among white college-educated suburban voters.
In 2020, Black voters supported Biden 92%-8%, while Latinos backed him 65%-32%. Recent polls show Harris leading Black voters by a narrower margin and regaining ground with Latino voters, a critical demographic in states like Pennsylvania and Michigan.
A Puerto Rican Backlash?
Some Puerto Rican voters have rallied around Harris after comedian Tony Hinchcliffe referred to Puerto Rico as a "floating island of garbage" at a recent Trump rally in New York.
Could this backlash swing Pennsylvania, home to a significant Puerto Rican population, including many in Allentown?
Harris currently leads among Latino voters in Pennsylvania 64%-30%, according to a Univision/YouGov poll, and has strong support among Puerto Ricans in the state. With Pennsylvania's 19 electoral votes at stake, Puerto Rican voters could play a pivotal role.
Will the 'Blue Wall' Hold or Split?
As Harris and Trump vie for the required 270 electoral votes, the “blue wall” states—Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan—are critical. These Rust Belt states have historically voted as a bloc, with one candidate sweeping all three since 1988. Biden won each in 2020 after Trump flipped them in 2016.
If Harris holds the blue wall, she could win even if she loses the four key Sun Belt states: North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada. With victories in her strongholds, she could secure a narrow 270-268 Electoral College win.
However, if Trump wins any of the blue wall states, especially Pennsylvania, it could open multiple paths to 270 electoral votes for him, particularly if he performs well in the Sun Belt. For instance, a Trump win in Pennsylvania, coupled with victories in three Sun Belt states, would secure him the presidency even if he loses Michigan and Wisconsin.
In this scenario, Harris would need to win at least two Sun Belt states to offset a Pennsylvania loss, with Trump still able to prevail even with a loss in Georgia or North Carolina.
Each of these factors could shape the outcome of one of the tightest presidential races in recent history.
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