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An American investment banker living in London for over a decade, Swenson had been on a whirlwind "banking circuit," jetting between cities like Milan, Paris, and Abu Dhabi. "It's been hectic—six cities in two weeks," he said during a call from an airport en route to Dublin, fresh from a trip to the Middle East. The following week, he was back on the road. As the head of Republicans Overseas' U.K. chapter, Swenson noted that, in past elections, they hadn't made a strong effort to "get out the vote." "I'm not leaping out of bed to register people who'll probably vote Democrat anyway," he explained. "Our focus is more on Republican areas."
This year could be different. With a close presidential race, both Vice President Kamala Harris’s and former President Donald Trump’s campaigns are tapping into every voting base, including Americans overseas. Estimates from organizations like the Federal Voting Assistance Program (FVAP) suggest that between 4.4 and 9 million Americans live abroad, though only 7.8% voted in 2020. Low turnout from this group could explain why past campaigns overlooked them. For Republicans like Swenson, seeking votes overseas may seem unfruitful, as overseas civilian voters tend to lean Democratic, shifting from the historically Republican military voters abroad.
Still, both parties appear to be courting Americans in countries from Australia to Guatemala. Republicans Overseas, for instance, has ramped up its presence, running Facebook ads and hosting events at NFL games in London. In June, Donald Trump Jr. attended a high-profile fundraiser in London, which raised $2.5 million. "That changed things," Swenson said, referring to the event’s success and newfound connections with the campaign.
Karen M., a likely Democratic voter and longtime London resident, was surprised to see a house covered in Harris signs in South Kensington. The Democratic National Committee (DNC) estimates that 1.6 million overseas voters can cast ballots in critical battleground states. The DNC has allocated $300,000 for global voter outreach, a record amount, matched with fundraising efforts to support phone banking and voter registration.
In the U.K., Democrats Abroad has increased visibility, setting up a pop-up campaign office in central London and organizing events with high-profile figures like former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi. Democrats are also hosting fundraising events, like one by Vogue’s Anna Wintour. Sharon Manitta, global press secretary for Democrats Abroad, even takes “gorilla PR” approaches, such as slipping voter registration cards into North American shoppers' trolleys.
Americans have voted from abroad since the Civil War, with today’s overseas voters often moving for work or family. FVAP data shows most live in Canada, Mexico, Britain, France, and Israel. But many face challenges, including complex absentee voting paperwork and unreliable international mail. While some states allow email ballots, others require physical ballots to be mailed back, which can lead to delays.
This election season, the Trump campaign has legally challenged some overseas ballots, particularly those cast by U.S.-born children of Americans and military spouses. Trump has also campaigned to end "double taxation" for Americans abroad, resonating with expatriates who must file with the IRS, often resulting in higher taxes than those in other countries.
Reproductive rights, a pivotal issue, also influences many overseas voters. Ohioan Regan Moran, a nursing student in Sydney, cited the end of Roe v. Wade as a major factor. Her concerns echo those of other expatriates like Aine Dougherty, a pastry student in France, who believes her vote can influence policies back home for friends and family.
In Guatemala, where U.S. politics intersect with immigration discussions, John Chudy, head of Democrats Abroad’s local chapter, anticipates a modest turnout among the 600 registered Democrats, but fewer Republicans. Both parties have intensified efforts to mobilize this year, with overseas gatherings planned on Election Day as Americans abroad watch the results together.
While the overseas vote remains challenging to measure and mobilize, groups like Democrats Abroad and Republicans Overseas agree on one thing: engaging this voting bloc may indeed make a difference in this highly competitive election.
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