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Moldovans will head to the polls on Sunday for two pivotal votes, seen as the most significant in the country’s post-Soviet history. One is for the presidency, and the other is a referendum on potential European Union membership. Both face the threat of interference from pro-Russian forces.
Some voters are being enticed with financial incentives. Moldovan oligarch Ilan Shor, who has Kremlin connections, has promised to pay those who support a pro-Russian candidate and oppose the referendum. Shor, convicted in absentia for his role in a $1 billion bank fraud in 2014, has spent much of his time in Russia, where he leads a political movement that Moldovan authorities claim is attempting to disrupt the elections.
In addition to more subtle disinformation tactics, Shor has taken a direct approach. In a video on his Telegram account, he offered voters $28 to register with his campaign, with promises of larger payments if they help defeat the referendum. He said those who perform well could receive up to 5,000 lei ($280).
Authorities see Shor’s actions as part of a broader effort to influence the outcomes of the two votes, which will determine whether Moldova continues its pro-Western trajectory or remains tied to Russia’s influence.
Moldova, a country of 2.5 million people located between Romania and Ukraine, has oscillated between Western and Russian alliances since the fall of the Soviet Union. Russia maintains a military presence in Transnistria, a breakaway region supported by Moscow. However, Moldova's political landscape has shifted toward the West since 2020, when Maia Sandu, a former World Bank official, was elected president with a strong anti-corruption platform. Her pro-Western party secured a parliamentary majority in 2021, and she is now seeking re-election, favored to win.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 was a turning point for Moldova, accelerating its pursuit of EU membership. The war exposed Moldova's vulnerability to Russian aggression, particularly after more than half a million Ukrainian refugees crossed into the country. Moldova was granted EU candidate status in June 2022, further distancing itself from Moscow's orbit.
Despite the challenges posed by the war, Moldova has managed to reduce its dependence on Russian gas, securing alternative energy sources from Europe after Gazprom sharply cut supplies. This move ended years of energy blackmail, according to Moldova’s energy minister.
Polling suggests that Sandu is popular, with more than 36% of voters backing her. Her closest rival, former prosecutor Alexandr Stoianoglo, trails with just over 10%. Although Stoianoglo represents the traditionally pro-Russian Party of Socialists, even he supports EU membership, a shift that would have been unthinkable a few years ago.
The war in Ukraine has shaken Moldova’s political landscape, leaving Russia-friendly politicians struggling to reconcile their past pro-Russian stance with the realities of Moscow's aggression. However, Russian efforts to meddle continue, with reports of a $15 million operation aimed at influencing the EU referendum. Moldovan authorities have accused Russia of buying votes and funding acts of vandalism to disrupt the process.
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov has denied any interference, claiming that many Moldovans still support friendly relations with Russia. Meanwhile, online propaganda campaigns are targeting Sandu with personal attacks and spreading fears about EU membership, claiming it will lead to war and impose LGBTQ policies on the country.
While these efforts concern Moldovan officials, analysts believe they reflect Russia’s waning influence. The crude tactics, including vote-buying, suggest that Moscow is losing its soft power in Moldova. However, the Kremlin's destabilization efforts are unlikely to end with this vote. According to experts, Russia is laying the groundwork for future influence in Moldova, particularly in next year’s parliamentary elections.
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