2024 Election Odds: Trump's Betting Surge as Harris Falls Behind in Key State Polls"
Offshore bettors are increasingly raising the odds of former President Donald Trump winning the 2024 presidential election, predicting he has a strong chance in key battleground states like Pennsylvania. By 6 p.m. ET on Wednesday, Trump's odds were just under 59% on Polymarket, a cryptocurrency trading platform, marking the first time this has occurred since President Joe Biden exited the race. Similarly, Betfair Exchange, the largest peer-to-peer betting platform in the U.K., projected Trump as the likely winner on Wednesday morning. However, betting on presidential elections is not legally allowed in the U.S.
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National polling data compiled by Real Clear Politics presents a different picture: since the September 10 debate between Vice President Kamala Harris and Trump, Harris has held a nearly 2-point lead, though she has consistently lagged in battleground-state polls throughout October.
Trump's improving odds correlate with a widening lead in battleground states. However, Polymarket's weekly "Oracle" newsletter cautioned on Tuesday that discrepancies between betting markets and polling margins should not be overstated. "While Trump's lead is the largest it’s been since the summer, a 55-45 edge in betting markets isn’t as solid as a five-point lead in the polls," the newsletter explained. "Small polling shifts can result in big swings in betting odds."
Trump's odds have notably increased in Pennsylvania, which holds 19 electoral votes, the most of any state classified as a toss-up by Real Clear Politics. Pennsylvania has been a frequent campaign stop for both candidates, and when bettors see Pennsylvania polls favoring Trump, his odds of winning the state rise sharply.
"Pennsylvania is the tipping-point state," said Bernard Yaros, lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics, on Thursday. The firm sees narrow paths to victory for both candidates, with Pennsylvania playing a crucial role. "It’s an extremely tight race, with margins of just tens of thousands of votes," Yaros added.
In one scenario, Oxford Economics analyzed Pennsylvania’s 67 counties to estimate vote totals for Trump and Harris. They predicted that just 19,101 votes could be enough to swing the state—and potentially the election—toward Trump.
According to Real Clear Politics, nine states with a combined 104 electoral votes remain toss-ups. If the election were based on current polling, Trump and Ohio Sen. JD Vance would comfortably exceed the 270 electoral votes needed to win. Bettors on Polymarket are also focusing on these toss-up states, though the probability of Trump winning in the closest races remains under 60%.
As of Wednesday evening, Trump had a 17-percentage-point lead over Harris on Polymarket, and Betfair Exchange showed a similar gap. While this margin is narrower than in Trump’s previous presidential runs, betting markets have diverged sharply from polling in recent days. Historically, the betting favorite has lost only twice since 1866, including when markets failed to predict Trump’s 2016 victory and in 1948, when Harry Truman upset Thomas Dewey despite 8-to-1 odds.
Offshore bettors are increasingly raising the odds of former President Donald Trump winning the 2024 presidential election, predicting he has a strong chance in key battleground states like Pennsylvania. By 6 p.m. ET on Wednesday, Trump's odds were just under 59% on Polymarket, a cryptocurrency trading platform, marking the first time this has occurred since President Joe Biden exited the race. Similarly, Betfair Exchange, the largest peer-to-peer betting platform in the U.K., projected Trump as the likely winner on Wednesday morning. However, betting on presidential elections is not legally allowed in the U.S.
See Video
National polling data compiled by Real Clear Politics presents a different picture: since the September 10 debate between Vice President Kamala Harris and Trump, Harris has held a nearly 2-point lead, though she has consistently lagged in battleground-state polls throughout October.
Trump's improving odds correlate with a widening lead in battleground states. However, Polymarket's weekly "Oracle" newsletter cautioned on Tuesday that discrepancies between betting markets and polling margins should not be overstated. "While Trump's lead is the largest it’s been since the summer, a 55-45 edge in betting markets isn’t as solid as a five-point lead in the polls," the newsletter explained. "Small polling shifts can result in big swings in betting odds."
Trump's odds have notably increased in Pennsylvania, which holds 19 electoral votes, the most of any state classified as a toss-up by Real Clear Politics. Pennsylvania has been a frequent campaign stop for both candidates, and when bettors see Pennsylvania polls favoring Trump, his odds of winning the state rise sharply.
"Pennsylvania is the tipping-point state," said Bernard Yaros, lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics, on Thursday. The firm sees narrow paths to victory for both candidates, with Pennsylvania playing a crucial role. "It’s an extremely tight race, with margins of just tens of thousands of votes," Yaros added.
In one scenario, Oxford Economics analyzed Pennsylvania’s 67 counties to estimate vote totals for Trump and Harris. They predicted that just 19,101 votes could be enough to swing the state—and potentially the election—toward Trump.
According to Real Clear Politics, nine states with a combined 104 electoral votes remain toss-ups. If the election were based on current polling, Trump and Ohio Sen. JD Vance would comfortably exceed the 270 electoral votes needed to win. Bettors on Polymarket are also focusing on these toss-up states, though the probability of Trump winning in the closest races remains under 60%.
As of Wednesday evening, Trump had a 17-percentage-point lead over Harris on Polymarket, and Betfair Exchange showed a similar gap. While this margin is narrower than in Trump’s previous presidential runs, betting markets have diverged sharply from polling in recent days. Historically, the betting favorite has lost only twice since 1866, including when markets failed to predict Trump’s 2016 victory and in 1948, when Harry Truman upset Thomas Dewey despite 8-to-1 odds.
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